First, I would like to congratulate all those, who traded the Scandinavian Opportunities published about a week ago. Very good returns. The call on Circa is has been excellent for the last two weeks. You could almost double your money.
Two ideas are from a Fearnley daily report. I copy below their report in full. I am long both and I am glad Fearnley support this two ideas. I believe both are candidates for doubling during the next quarter:
ALUS/FREYR – Asymmetrical risk with zero downside until merger
Looks similar to HCCH/Fusion Fuel (now HTOO) ahead of its merger when the stock was essentially flat until two weeks ahead of the EGM, then rallied ~50% over the two weeks going into the EGM and another 35% on the day when the merger was approved.
We might be in a different market, but redemption value in ALUS is $10.07/share which is where the stock closed yesterday. ALUS filed with the SEC two weeks ago and said the EGM will be held promptly once the statement is declared effective, likely in late April / early May. ALUS is merging with FREYR, a Norwegian developer of clean, next-generation battery cell production capacity.
FREYR har hired executives from the oil/gas and aluminum industries (Equinor, Hydro, BP), who are experienced in running large projects. The company has received NOK 181m in support from the Norwegian government so far. While ALUS has $290m in cash on balance, the combined company has a fully-committed PIPE equity issue of $600m anchored by Koch Industries; Glencore; Fidelity FMR; and Franklin Templeton, among others. FREYR is located in a region with vast supplies of renewable energy and seabed minerals (cobalt and manganese). Commercial production will start in 1H23 and the company is currently in discussions with 40 potential customers within electrical vehicles, power production and marine electrification. The industry needs to quadruple capacity to at least 2TWh in 2030 in order to meet demand (Bloomberg). Note Sweden’s Northvolt recently won a $14bn order to supply Audi and Porsche. ALUS will likely get increased attention going into the merger, with zero downside to redemption value. Latest investor presentation: https://www.freyrbattery.com/assets/Documents/FREYR-Investor-Presentation_WEB.pdf
HTOO – Spoke with company, Evora on track for Q2
Fusion Fuel is on track with Evora production start this quarter, also with the production facility development. Evora will be a game changer for the company and a ‘proof of concept’ on an industrial scale. The company aims to get the first part of the project onstream, audited and verified as early as possible in 2Q21 which will be announced to the market. The company is sufficiently capitalized to carry out activities into 2022. Over the next 6 months, the following will happen: 1) Production start at Evora, major share price trigger; 2) production facility will be well underway; and 3) large agreements and projects will be announced and committed. Management thinks a dual listing in Oslo may make sense going forward. Interesting share price level to get in now ahead of the largest catalysts to date.
BWLPG/Avance/Dorian – Rates continue upwards Our analyst prefers BWLPG and Dorian, but a rising tide suggests Avance will move too. VLGC rates continue to recover from the March doldrums with levels now breaching $30k/d ($20-25k/d is cash break-even for the various players). In the Western hemisphere, April cargoes have continued to absorb the vessel overhang which coupled with discharge issues in the East has created a substantially tighter market than what was the case a few weeks ago. Vessel exiting the market for DDs have undershot our expectations YTD, but with several vessels set to enter docks near-term we see a continued tight market balance moving forward.
Top BUY Ideas (adding LPG stocks/MGN, removing AOW/SGRE): LPG stocks, MGN, DVD, MPCES, TE, LSG, ODL, WALWIL, ZIM, NRS, HRGI, OHT, NFE, REC, AKSO, HTOO, OSUN
Top SELL Ideas: TGS, TK US