Next week will bring several interesting IPOs in Scandinavia to look at.
Circa IPO was 15 times oversubscribed. Only largest investors got allocations. Circa IPO starts trading on 2 March. Circa has a potential to double on the first day and it should at least double in the next six months. Circa is a great buy at launch. Investors can get exposure to Circa now through buying its largest shareholder Norske Skog. Both should rerate strongly. See the article for the Circa business description and the investment story:
HAV Group – very interesting spin off their Tech business. The new company IPO starts trading on 4 March. The presentation link is enclosed at the end of the blog
Flyr IPO – new Norway airline, that is based on the post China virus boom in travelling. It should start operations in the second half of the year. Flyr starts trading on MOnday. Very good article summarizing the story:
US-based $950 mil mkt cap, 0 debt, $100 mil in cash, 72% margins, and 20% revenue CAGR. ERII dominates desalination indsutry. It has not lost a contract for large plant in five years. Achieved 40% savings for desalination industry. ERII entered a new industry : waste water. The management believes, that waste water might be even bigger than desalination. Today’s partnership with DuPont Water Solution confirms that this should be achievable earlier than originally thought. Other new applications of their Pressure Exchanger Techonolgy are to be announced in two weeks on Q4 call.
ERII is our largest position. We believe, the company could exceed USD 100 within three years.
Below article well summarizes ERII opportunity Vorteq, another product under development:
San Leandro, 02/25/2021 / 08:00, EST/EDT – EQS Newswire – Energy Recovery
Webinar Announced to Discuss Cutting-Edge Approach for Minimal Liquid Discharge SystemsSAN LEANDRO, CA / ACCESSWIRE / February 25, 2021 / Energy Recovery (NASDAQ:ERII) today announced a partnership with DuPont Water Solutions (“DuPont”), a global leader in purification and specialty-separation technologies, to offer advanced solutions improving the efficiency of many industrial wastewater treatment systems.The companies will co-host a webinar on Wednesday, March 10, at 10:00 a.m. ET, to discuss the benefits of pairing Energy Recovery Ultra PX™ energy recovery devices (“ERD”) with DuPont membranes in industrial wastewater treatment systems.The webinar, titled “FilmTec™ Fortilife™ membranes matched with Energy Recovery Ultra PX™ provide breakthrough in Minimal Liquid Discharge affordability,” will feature presentations from Energy Recovery and DuPont experts, who will provide an overview of how their technologies will provide a solution to technical challenges associated with Minimal Liquid Discharge (“MLD”) Ultra High-Pressure Reverse Osmosis (“UHPRO”) operations, generating significant energy and cost savings.Presenters will include Eric Kadaj, Senior Director, Business and Applications Development, from Energy Recovery, and Tina Arrowood, Principal Research Scientist, from DuPont Water Solutions.”This collaboration with DuPont demonstrates the incredible capabilities of our Ultra PX ERD. We believe that our new technology has the potential to transform UHPRO industrial wastewater treatment in the same way our PX® Pressure Exchanger® ERD transformed seawater reverse osmosis desalination,” said Rodney Clemente, Energy Recovery’s Senior Vice President of Water. “Together with DuPont’s leading membrane technologies, our Ultra PX can enable industrial wastewater treatment facilities to maintain high performance and reliability while reducing waste, energy use, and cost.”DuPont’s FilmTec™ Fortilife™ product family is designed for facilities that would benefit from durable, robust membranes and a reliable, industry-leading nanofiltration and reverse osmosis water treatment that is effective and easy to clean.”Our FilmTec™ Fortilife™ offerings are focused on meeting facilities’ unique industrial water treatment challenges,” said Verónica Garcia Molina, Global Marketing Manager of DuPont Water Solutions. “Alongside Energy Recovery’s Ultra PX, we are confident we are bringing a high-value and efficient solution for industrial wastewater treatment to the market.”Webinar To register for the webinar, please visit http://spr.ly/6000HYySg.A recording of the webinar will be made available following the event on Energy Recovery’s website at http://www.energyrecovery.com/media-center/news-events/ and on DuPont’s website at https://www.dupont.com/water/resources/webinars.html.Energy Recovery Forward-Looking Statements Certain matters discussed in this press release are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, including the Company’s belief that the Ultra PX has the potential to transform UHPRO in the same way the Company’s PX Pressure Exchanger ERD transformed seawater reverse osmosis desalination, and the Company’s belief that together with DuPont’s leading membrane technologies, the Company’s Ultra PX can enable industrial wastewater treatment facilities to maintain high performance and reliability while reducing waste, energy use and cost. These forward-looking statements are based on information currently available to us and on management’s beliefs, assumptions, estimates, or projections and are not guarantees of future events or results. Potential risks and uncertainties and any other factors that may have been discussed herein regarding the risks and uncertainties of the Company’s business, and the risks discussed under “Risk Factors” in the Company’s Form 10-K filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) for the year ended December 31, 2019 as well as other reports filed by the Company with the SEC from time to time. Because such forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, the Company’s actual results may differ materially from the predictions in these forward-looking statements. All forward-looking statements are made as of today, and the Company assumes no obligation to update such statements.About Energy Recovery For more than 20 years, Energy Recovery, Inc. (NASDAQ:ERII) has created technologies that solve complex challenges in industrial fluid-flow markets. We design and manufacture solutions that reduce waste, improve operational efficiencies, and lower the production costs of clean water and oil and gas. What began as a game-changing invention for water desalination has grown into a global business delivering solutions that enable more affordable access to these critical resources. Headquartered in the San Francisco Bay Area, Energy Recovery has manufacturing, research, and development facilities across California and Texas. In addition, our worldwide sales and technical service organization provides on-site support for our line of water solutions. For more information, please visit www.energyrecovery.com.About DuPont Water Solutions DuPont is a global innovation leader with technology-based materials, ingredients and solutions that help transform industries and everyday life. Our employees apply diverse science and expertise to help customers advance their best ideas and deliver essential innovations in key markets including electronics, transportation, construction, water, health and wellness, food and worker safety. More information about the company, its businesses and solutions can be found at www.dupont.com. Investors can access information included on the Investor Relations section of the website at investors.dupont.com.Energy Recovery Contact Investor Relations firstname.lastname@example.org +1 (281) 962-8105Press Inquiries email@example.com +1 (510) 219-8462DuPont Contact Laura Gallindo firstname.lastname@example.org +1 (989) 259-5081SOURCE: Energy Recovery
Mintra is a leading provider of workforce management systems for safety.
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Mintra IPO was placed in late September at 2020 at 9.70 NOK per share. The IPO had a very strong interest and at the last moment the IPO size increased significantly. The last minute change in IPO size scared investors and the IPO sold off on launch. It was a filed IPO. The share price settled around 7 NOK and has been around there since.
The company is guiding increase in EBITDA margins from current 30% to 40% in medium term. The company is growing both organically and through acquisitions.
Mintra today announce its Q4. Numbers were as expected. Pareto and Sparebank has price targets between 9-10 NOKs. Below is a summary of SpareBank research:
Mintra is a mission critical and leading global partner delivering a scalable and proprietary workforce management system and eLearning portal for safety critical industries with an impressive blue-chip customer base with low churn… » Sticky service offering with low single digit churn. » Demonstrated business model with +30% EBITDA (2020) margin and gross margins to increase with business mix. Guides +40% EBITDA margin medium-term • …perfectly positioned with ~80% of revenues in a huge and attractive end market with forecasted double-digit growth… » Global e-learning market at USD200bn, where the corporate vertical is expected to grow +10% until 2026 driven by low-single digit global penetration, but where growth currently is affected by Covid-19. » Human Capital Management (HCM) software market expected to growth +20% • …and where SaaS revenue characteristics, high-end niches and global organization lay the foundation for continued double-digit, profitable and favourable organic revenue growth… » Mintra can point to 14% organic revenue CAGR last 10 years, with Covid-19 temporarily negatively affecting eLearning (~46% of revenues) » Vertical agnostic platform and software (energy, maritime and other industries) with high-growth niches position the company for in line market growth » Increasing share of recurring revenue in the mix • …which is fuelled with a accretive “buy-and-build” strategy where a fragmented market and concrete M&A pipeline offer ample opportunities to leverage current set up for customer acquisitions… » Concrete M&A pipeline with concrete model for how to conduct and extract synergies » Multiple arbitrage, new industries, new regions • …and coupled with strong cash conversion, this position MNTR with several levers for scalability » +30% EBITDA margin and 25% OpFCF margin (i.e. scalable customer base expansion with customer vertical agnostic platform) » Low churn with potential for price hikes, industrialization of legacy systems, up-sell/volume increase from existing customers increasing use cases (operational scalability) » Scale the platform/technology vertically (vertical agnostic) and scale on cash flow (capex does not scale with revenues with capitalized R&D)
MPCES (Buy tp NOK100) – IoC: Great combination of downside protection with net cash at 80% of m.cap and strong upside from value accretive renewable growth
We initiate coverage of MPC Energy Solutions (MPCES) with a Buy recommendation and a target price of NOK 100 per share. The company recently raised USD100m, in a combination of USD90m cash and USD10m worth of solar power plants, and listed on the Euronext Growth in January 2021. As such, the company currently trades at a price/book of less than 1.2x, and will invest in solar PV plants, wind power plants, hybrid and/or energy efficiency projects with an equity IRR of 12-18%. We argue that the company offers an attractive risk/reward, as it roughly focus on a lot of the same business opportunities as Scatec, renewable energy in emerging markets, while Scatec trades a P/B of 5x. We estimate that MPCES will invest the USD90m equity in a portfolio of 112MW, all with secured power sales agreements in place. If valued at an equity discount rate of 7%, the projects alone are worth NOK58/share, 40% above the current share price. In addition comes future growth, which could easily exceed our estimated value of NOK42/share. Lastly, it has been a couple of volatile days in the renewable energy space on the stock exchange. Unlike many other renewable companies, MPCES has a firm value with a net cash position of NOK34/share (83% of current share price), and could prove a bargain if it drops with market sentiment
We are long MPC ENERGY. The company is reporting tomorrow. Today it is up 15%. Could be just the bigenning.
Bullish article in Swedish paper on NEXT Biometrics. Translation below
Ola Rollén on Next Biometrics: “Good turnaround by CEO” The Norwegian biometrics company Next Biometrics has rushed to the stock market this year after several difficult years. Wednesday’s report is given a thumbs up by the major owner Ola Rollén, Hexagon’s CEO – who praises the Swedish civil engineer who has been leading the company for some time.
Sales during the quarter amounted to NOK 8.8 million (9.2), in line with a prior announcement from the company last week in connection with a then completed private placement of SEK 89 million, to set against a cash of SEK 68 million at the turn of the year. The gross margin also developed in line with the advance announcement: plus 16 percent against minus 2 percent a year ago.
The capital raising was made at a price of SEK 6, just over a week after the share price had received a boost of more than 100 percent from a press release about an important order of PC sensors: the share rose from 3.28 to 7.87 Norwegian kroner on 8- February 10th.
Ola Rollén, Hexagon’s CEO, is with his private investment company Greenbridge the largest owner in Next Biometrics since a notable investment in the autumn of 2015, which made Greenbridge the owner of at most almost 19 percent of the company.
Since then, the share has fallen, and the share price has plummeted to a fraction of the levels at which the investment took place. According to the owner service Holdings, as of February 22, Greenbridge owned just over 8 percent of Next. Last week’s issue diluted the owner company from just under 10 percent to today’s level.
The refined large company CEO expresses his approval with Wednesday’s report:
“The costs are now at a good level, the cash register is full and they take orders and design wins in the so-called FAP20 area – a good turnaround by Peter.”
The Swede Peter Heuman, a Chalmers-educated civil engineer, became CEO of Next at the age of 43 in September 2019, after a previous position as CEO of First North-listed Done Management & Systems (later Nordkom) and also has a background in Ericsson.
The Fap20 sensors mentioned by Ola Rollén appear in a press release from Next on February 4, when the share price rose 16 percent. According to Wednesday’s announcement, Next Biometric has received orders for more than NOK 13 million for the first quarter of 2021, with an improved gross margin.
The Next share was up 1.2 percent to the level of SEK 6.80 at 10 o’clock on Wednesday. So far this year, however, it is up as much as 160 percent.
The below idea proved very strong. The share price is up 20% since publication. NEXT Biometrics is reporting tomorrow. We expect strong report, that could keep the share price momentum. We are long NEXT
BUY NORSKE SKOG – NSKOG owns 32% of Circa. Circa is doing its IPO. They convert biowaste into high grade chemical through patented process. Merck is the partner. The IPO is very hot, 15 times oversubscribed. Allocations out today. Bids under 10 million NOK got no allocations. At NSKOG Circa is valued at cost. Low amount. At IPO pricing it represent 5 NOK per NSKOG share. Based on experience Circa will double when it starts trading on 4 March – it would represent 10 NOK of NSKOG share price. This is not in the NSKOG share price. You can play Circa through NSKOG.
If you value Circa based on Renewcell, it should trade at 4-6 times its IPO price. It will not get there immediately, It could get there in 6 months time. In such situation that would represent 20-30 of NSKOG share price. NSKOG trades today at 33 NOK. I am long NSKOG, my largest position in Scandinavia.
SELL QUANTAFUEL – I am very concerned that the results next week will disappoint. I will buy back after the results.
BUY PRYME – recently listed. They are like Quantafuel. They are two years behind. That is the reason they trade at 1/10 of Quantafuel capitalisation. Remember, where Quantafuel traded last year. Low 20s. PRYME could be similar.
Buy MPC Solutions – it trades at fraction of Scatec solar. I belive they will double this year. See my blog below for more information.
BUY AEC – I believe in the story very strongly. See the below articles:
Circa today announced its IPO. Norske Skog owns 32% of Circa. The IPO is expected to be prized at approximately 1.5 billion NOK. Norske Skog stake is therefore valued at 500 million, or 5 NOK per share of Norske Skog. It was valued at immaterial amount. It NAV should therefore increase by close to 5NOK per share.
I believe that the market does not give Norske Skog any credit for this value creation. It should be fully reflected when the Circa IPO is launched on 3 March.
Circa is converting bio-waste into a high grade chemicals. They partnered Merck to distribute the chemical.
Pareto is pricing Circa at “25% below our mid range valuation”. Circa share price should increase significantly on the IPO debut day. As most IPOs do lately. So it should trade up by 25% at least.
If you value Circa based on current multiples of Renewcell, the valuation upside should be 50%-100%. If you value this based on Carbonis multiples, Circa should be valued at 4-6 times its IPO price.
Do not assume, that Circa will reach multiple valuation on its first trading day. But it is realistic to assume that it could easily double on the first day and further double in the next six months. In such scenario Circa would represent 60% of Norske Skog market capitalization – 20 NOK per share. The best way to play Circa IPO now is through Norske Skog shares.
Scatec Solar trades at 6 times its book value. MPC trades at a bit above 1 times book value. According to the analysts MPC should trade at least 3 times book value. It means that the share price should be 120 NOK per share vs today´s 50 NOK.
What will drive the share price:
Spare bank research publication – IPO was managed by Fearnley and SpareBank. The managers always publish research after the blackout period. Fearnley already published very bullish report titled “A First class Growth Vehicle is Born” their price target is 90. The research pushed the stock from 45 to 50. SpareBank has much higher retail coverage. A similar research would push the price up by 10 NOK. Their publication must be any day.
Company news flow – the analysts expect strong newsflow on project progress over the next 60 month. An analyst told me he expects around ten news items during the period. IF MPC deliver as expected, its share price should double.